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Shale gas production target lowered causing concern

wallpapers News 2020-09-22

Wu Xinxiong, director of the state energy administration, said in a recent speech at the 13th five year plan energy planning work conference that the production of shale gas coal-bed methane will reach 30 billion cubic meters by 2020.

In 2012, when the Energy Administration formulated the shale gas development plan, the actual annual output of shale gas will reach 60 billion-100 billion cubic meters by 2020.

Shale gas production target has been cut short, which has shocked the industry.

The reporter of China chemical industry news carried out an interview on this issue.

The industry believes that the production reduction is expected to "cool down" the development of shale gas, so as to promote the rational development of shale gas.

"Although shale gas has made a breakthrough in Fuling other areas, it is still a certain distance away from large-scale commercial industrial exploitation in the United States, it is also very small compared with China's natural gas production.

" Feng Lianyong, a professor at China University of petroleum, who has just returned from a visit to the United States, Canada other countries, said in an interview with China chemical industry news that the energy administration's cut of 2020 shale gas target has released a rational signal.

China's shale gas projects had the trend of "explosive" investment rapid development.

Through the summary of the problems exposed in the actual exploration development process of the first two rounds of shale gas winning enterprises, the heated shale gas development is gradually returning to rationality gradually on the right track.

"This is a revision of the outlook made by the National Energy Administration for shale gas development in the 12th Five Year Plan period.

China's Shale structure location are more complex than those in the United States, so it is necessary to localize the mining technology to protect water sources ecology.

Combined with the introduction of natural gas from Russia Central Asia, the local shale gas production can be slowed down.

" Pang Changwei, Professor of China Energy Strategy Research Institute, said.

The reporter of China chemical industry news learned that the shale gas production target of PetroChina by 2015 is 2.

6 billion cubic meters.

Sinopec's shale gas experimental area, led by Fuling shale gas field, has made a breakthrough in production, with a production capacity of 1.

1 billion cubic meters per year.

Fuling shale gas field plans to build a production capacity of 5 billion cubic meters by the end of 2015.

However, in addition to Sinopec PetroChina, the second batch of shale gas winning enterprises have not made great progress. Dr. Cui Yongqiang of Daqing oilfield exploration Development Research Institute said in an interview with China chemical industry news: "shale does not produce gas.

Shale is only a reservoir, it is the worst reservoir.

Therefore, shale gas reserves are small, production is low investment is high, exploitation may pollute the surface underground water systems.

The major developed countries in the world are very cautious about shale gas exploitation.

" "Shale gas development involves technology research development, industrial policy, natural gas price, gas transmission pipeline network, environmental supervision many other issues, China can not be said to be ready now.

" Professor Fan Ying, director of energy environmental policy research center of Chinese Academy of Sciences, told China chemical industry news: "there are still some defects deficiencies in the implementation of shale gas preferential policy, the applicability of existing oil gas regulations, pricing mechanism of pipeline network, environmental protection supervision so on.

Establishing a set of relatively perfect supervision management mechanism to regulate guide the development of shale gas is the key to large-scale commercial development of shale gas in China.

The government plays a key role in it.

" Fan Ying said that under the premise that China's shale gas related policy system regulatory system have not been established improved, slowing down the pace is a manifestation of returning to rationality.

Only when we slow down now can we get better faster in the future.

Expert's opinion: it is not feasible to copy the "American model" / - Feng Lianyong, Professor of China University of petroleum, can only learn from the experience lessons of American shale gas revolution due to resource endowment technology accumulation, but we can't copy the American model.

Resource endowments are quite different.

When I visited the shale gas production base in Pennsylvania of the United States, I found that the shale gas production per well in some blocks of the United States is comparable to that of conventional natural gas in China.

Data from a shale gas well in caochang, an American friend, shows that among the four wells, the largest one produced 160000 cubic meters of gas per day when it was put into operation, the least one was 100000 cubic meters.

After nearly three years of production, the highest well has a daily output of 40000 cubic meters, the rest are more than 20000 cubic meters per day.

When a well in an experimental area in Sichuan was put into operation, the daily output was more than 20000 cubic meters.

Moreover, the depth of shale gas wells in the United States is more than 1000 meters, the well sites are mostly in grassl, so there is no need to occupy cultivated l demolition.

There are many rivers it is convenient to take water.

The state of Pennsylvania in the United States clearly stipulates that it is not allowed to take groundwater for fracturing production.

However, from the perspective of some shale gas blocks discovered in China, the reservoir forming conditions are much worse than those in the United States, the exploitation is more difficult, with fewer rivers insufficient water resources.

Resource endowment is the most important.

If resources are not good, technology can't do anything about it.

Technology accumulation is not enough.

In addition to resources, the most important problem in shale gas development is the exploitation technology.

Shale gas technology in the United States is not br new, but is based on the development of existing technology, has been continuously summarized improved in the past 30 years.

Shale gas should be an industry continuously combined by existing technologies perfected in the process of engineering practice.

If the emphasis on technology R & D innovation, it does not necessarily adapt to the development of this industry.

The breakthrough of technological constraints does not necessarily depend on the pursuit of special high-tech things.

It often needs to learn from the past experience technical achievements, constantly combine apply them in practical work, so as to give full play to its maximum value.

The U.S. government has been supporting encouraging the exploration development of unconventional oil gas resources, especially shale gas, for a long time, has issued a number of supporting policies.

Even so, the data obtained from a consulting company in the United States shows that from 2008 to 2012, on the surface, the shale gas industry in the United States has a net profit, the cash flow in the past five years is positive, but after deducting capital expenditure, the free cash flow is negative except for 2009.

Moreover, free cash flow in 2012 was more than $60 billion.

This shows that the profit on the accounting account can not st scrutiny, the profit of the whole industry is in a high degree of uncertainty, it is possible to have a certain degree of financial crisis.

When discussing this topic in China, we often only see the success of the shale gas revolution in the United States, while ignoring its deep-seated financial attributes relatively dangerous side.

Shale gas is not the "savior" in the newsDownstream users of natural gas pay attention to the development of shale gas.

However, the author believes that shale gas is difficult to become the "savior" for chemical enterprises to solve the "gas shortage" problem.

On the one h, large-scale commercial exploitation of shale gas in China still needs time.

This time, the national energy administration has reduced the planned shale gas production, which confirms that China's shale gas development is still in its infancy.

Although the current situation of Chongqing Fuling, Shaanxi Yanchang other demonstration blocks is still good, but after all, the demonstration time is still short, how its economic performance needs to be tested by the market, the impact on the environment also needs to be investigated in detail.

According to the latest disclosed plan, China's shale gas production will reach 30 billion cubic meters by 2020, which is still very limited compared with the apparent consumption of 167.

6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2013.

On the other h, shale gas prices are a big problem.

At present, the most successful shale gas development in China is the Fuling gas area of Sinopec.

Jianfeng Chemical Co., Ltd., which is also in Fuling, has naturally become the first enterprise in China to produce nitrogen fertilizer with shale gas.

However, the price has not been negotiated.

Sinopec has determined that the commercial breakeven price of shale gas is 2.

78 yuan / m3, while the current price of industrial natural gas in Chongqing is 2.

54 yuan / m3, the price of fertilizer gas is 1.

30 yuan / m3.

Jianfeng Chemical hopes that the cost of shale gas is less than 2 yuan / m3.

Experts have analyzed that if the price of natural gas exceeds 2 yuan / m3, it is difficult for downstream enterprises to accept it.

Taking urea as an example, for each ton of urea production, it needs about 700 cubic meters of natural gas.

If calculated by 2 yuan / cubic meter, the cost of natural gas per ton of urea is 1400 yuan.

Plus the electricity, labor, management, sales other expenses, the cost will exceed 1500 yuan, the current factory price of urea is less than 1500 yuan.

If it is calculated at 2.

78 yuan / m3, the cost of urea is not enough to buy shale gas.

Therefore, at present, chemical enterprises can not afford shale gas.


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