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PTA rise promotes replenishment ahead of time, chemical fiber industry or current peak season is not prosperous

wallpapers News 2020-08-19

As we all know, from the end of August to the national day, polyester enterprises began to prepare for the production of winter clothes.

According to historical experience, at the end of July the beginning of August, the inventory of polyester enterprises often reached the low value within the year, then began to increase gradually.

However, as the price of upstream PTA rebounded strongly at the end of May, the attitude of polyester enterprises to buy up but not to buy down prompted enterprises to make up the stock in advance this year.

Affected by this, the consumption peak season of chemical fiber industry may move forward, showing a pattern of low peak season.

The clothing production increases against the season, the clothing production has obvious weak peak season.

From the end of December to January, as the weather turned cold, consumers began to buy clothes for winter.

In addition, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, clothing sales entered the peak season.

Therefore, in order to meet the market dem for clothing, a large number of winter clothes were launched in December.

Although summer has started in early May, consumers will start to purchase summer clothes on a large scale until the end of May.

Therefore, the centralized listing of summer clothes is in June.

In the past eight years, the growth rate of clothing production in May was only 0.

08%, while that in June was as high as 10.52%. However, this year, it is not normal.

The growth rate of clothing production in May was 10.

06%, while that in June was only 5.95%. This shows that the clothing production cycle of this year has moved forward, the consequences may be terminal textile in the later stage Dem began to fall.

Polyester stock replenishment was carried out ahead of schedule.

In previous years, polyester filament inventory had obvious seasonality.

At the end of July the beginning of August, polyester filament inventory reached a new low within the year, then began to rise sharply.

The reason for this situation is that winter clothing was put on the market in December, the fabric weaving industry began mass production in October to meet the needs of winter clothing production, polyester enterprises began to replenish the warehouse at the end of August.

However, this year's polyester filament inventory reached a new low in the year at the end of May, then began to rise steadily, showing no signs of weakening.

The replenishment of polyester enterprises in advance indicates that the consumption peak season of polyester industry moves forward, indicates that the replenishment of polyester will end earlier than in previous years.

The reason for this situation is that since February 2013, PTA price has experienced a strong rebound then started a year long decline.

The price dropped from 9000 yuan / ton to 6000 yuan / ton, with a drop of about 33.3%. Driven by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, polyester enterprises hold a wait--see attitude towards PTA market, the willingness to replenish the warehouse is generally not strong, so they adopt the strategy of "buy now use" for PTA.

Since the end of May this year, with the decrease of PX supply, the price of PX has continued to rise, causing the cost of PTA to move up.

In addition, PTA manufacturers began to limit production protect prices while PX rose.

PTA prices ushered in a strong rebound.

PTA price strength, so that polyester enterprises worry about the rise of later costs will cause their production operation profit decline or even loss, so they began to replenish the warehouse one after another.

Under the passive replenishment behavior of polyester enterprises, polyester filament inventory increased ahead of time.

However, due to the early replenishment of polyester enterprises this year, the dem for PTA in the later stage of the market may not be brisk in the peak season.

In addition, the current price of PTA shows a weak trend.

In the later stage, polyester enterprises may deduce that "success is also weak, failure is also Xiao He".

With the decline of polyester enterprises' willingness to replenish the warehouse, the supporting role of polyester consumption for PTA may be exhausted.

To sum up, we believe that the price rise of PTA makes polyester enterprises start to replenish the warehouse in advance, which helps to increase the price of PTA.

However, with the replenishment of polyester enterprises ahead of the previous years, the inventory of polyester enterprises has been relatively sufficient compared with previous years.

In addition, the current price of PTA shows a weak trend, so it is difficult for polyester enterprises to increase their enthusiasm for replenishment.

Therefore, we think that with the decline of the willingness of polyester enterprises to replenish the warehouse, the attitude of polyester enterprises may help to reduce PTA, the whole chemical fiber industry will return to a weak position .


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