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It is a foregone conclusion that the price of chemical fertilizer will be high as the decline of commodity accelerates

wallpapers News 2020-11-14
On August 14, commodity futures continued to fall in the main market, most of the commodity decline accelerated. The decline of oil was the most obvious, with vegetable oil falling by 3.66%. Japonica rice led the rise by 1.36%. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) issued a document calling for strengthening the prevention resolution of loan risks in Enterprise Guarantee Circle. On the 14th, a 14 day forward repurchase of 30 billion yuan was carried out. On Tuesday, the central bank's open market carried out a 14 day positive repurchase operation of 20 billion yuan. A total of 64 billion yuan of positive repurchase was due in the open market this week. Based on this, a net investment of 14 billion yuan was realized this week, which is the first time in the past three weeks.

coal chemical products: affected by the weak real estate data, the future price of coal coke reached a new low, the spot market was weak stable, the trading was low.

In terms of

chemical production, the crude benzene its deep processing industry chain market has stopped falling stabilized. Due to the higher auction prices in recent days, the crude benzene market has maintained stable operation. On the 14th, Shong spot closed at 7300-7350 yuan / T, with strong cost support. In addition to the stable price support of petrochemical enterprises, the quotations of hydrogenated benzene coking benzene enterprises were firm on the 14th, the spot delivery in Jiangsu was delivered The prices were closed at 9150-9200 yuan / ton 8600-8700 yuan / ton, respectively. However, the downstream dem was relatively weak the market negotiation enthusiasm was insufficient. In addition, the continuous decline of styrene in the main downstream affected the businesses to be bearish on the future market. In the downstream market of

, maleic anhydride is mainly stable for the time being. However, due to the acceleration of new production capacity of n-butane process, businesses are generally worried about the systemic risks from the market, the market negotiation atmosphere is more cautious. On the 14th, Jiangsu Zhejiang acceptance closed at 10600-10700 yuan / T.

fertilizer products: due to the relaxation of diammonium export policy this year the increase of international dem, China's diammonium enterprises seize the opportunity of export, the domestic autumn supply is significantly reduced. At present, there is a shortage of goods in many markets in northern China. It is understood that some large factories can only release goods to China after August 20, they mainly guarantee the core old customers. The main production areas of

are as follows: Hubei 64% DAP mainstream ex factory price is 2650-2700 yuan / ton, North China East China mainstream arrival price is 2750-2800 yuan / ton; Guizhou area 64% diammonium North pre received station price is 2800-2850 yuan / ton, Yunnan Province North pre received station price is 2900-3000 yuan / ton. The ex warehouse price of 64% DAP in North China East China was 2750-2900 yuan / ton in the early stage, 2850-2900 yuan / ton in Northwest China, 2900-3000 yuan / ton in Xinjiang, a small amount of goods were taken from the grassroots.

at present, the export of diammonium enterprises in China is still in steady progress. The increasing order quantity the small increase of export price make the export of diammonium enterprises "unable to stop at all". In the short term, exports are in full swing, dem in autumn follows closely, diammonium supply is tight, autumn price is high, which has become a foregone conclusion.

plastic products: due to the market panic caused by the new round of price reduction policies of petrochemical other manufacturers, China's plastics market continued to decline. According to the survey of jinyindao data, China's plastics index fell by 5 points to 1530 points, among which PE PP fell by 78 33 points to 11913 11689 points respectively. Relatively speaking, PVC, ABS PS remained stable. According to the feedback from industry insiders, the negative impact of coal to olefin enterprises on the original polyolefin industry exceeded expectations. The market pessimism was obvious, the overall trading atmosphere was relatively flat. Combined with the current upside down situation, petrochemicals still focus on price reduction. It is expected that the plastic market will be dominated by PE PP products in the near future, the market will be in a weak downward trend; in the late middle ten days, due to some petrochemical overhaul, production reduction cost factors, it is possible to stop the decline.

fuel oil

on Thursday (August 14), the international crude oil slightly increased, but the downward expectations of refined oil still exist, the purchase of middle lower reaches is still cautious, the operation of low inventory is maintained. Due to the shortage of funds the increasing pressure of loss, the operating rate fell to a low of 31%. This week, the benchmark spot price in Singapore fell sharply, the cost of imported fuel oil decreased, the inquiry of domestic refining increased. According to the information of importers, the CIF discount of European straight run oil decreased by 3-4 USD / T, the inquiry of domestic refining increased, but the actual transaction was still light. It is mainly due to the shortage of funds in some refineries due to the withdrawal of bank credit this month. Shong Daxin Qingyuan petrochemical, which have been active in the fuel oil market, have recently stopped importing fuel oil due to capital shortage. The monitoring data of jinyindao for

domestic catalytic materials show that the main transaction volume of vacuum wax oil is 5900-5950 yuan / ton, while that of atmospheric residue is 5100-5150 yuan / ton, which is light stable. The supply of vacuum wax oil in Shong Province has increased significantly, while the downstream dem enterprises such as HSBC petrochemical Wantong Chemical Co., Ltd. are in shutdown due to the shutdown of catalytic units, the market dem is shrinking. Under the pressure of cost, Shong vacuum wax oil refining quotation is stable. The price difference of wax oil with good quality is 6150 yuan / ton, that of wax oil with density of 0.95 yuan / ton is 5500 yuan / ton.

forecast: the international crude oil price rebounds slightly, but the expected reduction of refined oil still exists. The overall supply of fuel oil in Shong exceeds the dem. The downstream dem is depressed due to the shutdown of refineries, the future transaction will continue to increase preferential treatment.

methanol

under the resonance influence of favorable factors such as centralized maintenance of Northwest methanol plant, replenishment of downstream users human promotion, the mainl methanol market stopped falling stabilized at the end of July; in the first week of August, Shong took the lead in rebounding, the main production areas gradually improved in shipment. The temporary parking of Baofeng in Ningxia the raw material outsourcing of methanol to olefin unit in Northern Shaanxi eased the sales pressure of Ningxia surrounding enterprises In the second week, prices in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia Ningxia rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 80-110 yuan / ton, the sales situation remained optimistic. Most of the enterprises in Shong Inner Mongolia had an increase of about RMB 2427-20t / 20t, up from the end of the month. At present,

are still relatively concentrated in Northwest methanol plant shutdown, such as Inner Mongolia Xinao, Inner Mongolia Donghua, Inner Mongolia Yigao, Ningxia Baofeng, Qinghai Guilu other units, involving an annual production capacity of 5 million tons. Most of these units will be restored at the end of August early September, before that, Inner Mongolia Ningxia will be restoredThe supply of other places will still show a tight situation.

The methanol supply of

has also been reduced, the overall operation has been reduced. The shutdown devices such as Iran Zagros 1.65 million tons / year, Saudi Arabia IMC 1.0 million tons / year, Malaysia Petronas 1.7 million tons / year, the 1.3 million tons / year unit in meisennis in Egypt. In addition, due to the low inventory rising prices in Southeast Asia, about 40000 tons of methanol have been exported from China's main port to Southeast Asia since August, with other parts Iranian goods are shipped directly to South Korea, China's imports are expected to shrink in August.

from the downstream point of view, the production sales of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE other traditional downstream products have not changed significantly, the oil blending raw materials such as MTBE methylal are still restricted by the policy. However, due to the low inventory of raw materials in the early stage, the market circulation of goods is limited, the purchase intention has been significantly improved. Under the background of tight goods rising prices in Northwest China, the probability of passive follow-up in the consumer market is large. In addition, the raw materials of methanol to olefin / propylene / aromatics units in Weifang of Shong, Tangshan of Hebei Yulin of Shaanxi Province have been exported to stimulate the market purchasing atmosphere.

recent rise in the market is another positive from the rise in logistics costs, Shong, Hebei, central China other places of hazardous chemical transport inspection led to the extension of the transport cycle, which led to the rise in logistics costs, most of the increase was transferred to the consumer market. Looking back on 2014, the overall freight rate was at a low level. Taking a factory in Ordos to Wen'an as an example, the freight cost this year was around 200-250 yuan / ton; in the second half of 2013, it was more than 250 yuan / ton, with a high point of 450 yuan / ton. Since the second half of 2013, the number of hazardous chemical transport vehicles used for methanol transportation has increased significantly, while the cross regional sales volume has decreased this year, making the batch of hazardous chemicals vehicles idle; in addition, the difficulty of distribution is also one of the reasons for the overall downturn of the logistics industry.

Before the supply of

in Northwest China is restored, the mainl market will still maintain an upward trend, the traditional peak season is approaching, it is not appropriate to be overly bearish on the digestion capacity of traditional downstream products. In addition, the rising price of natural gas the strong US dollar price have also dominated the market in the near future. There is a positive interaction between Hong Kong the mainl, the mainl will remain strong in the short term; in the long run, it remains to be seen Pay attention to changes in supply dem. The sources of

are

in Jinyin isl. The above contents are for reference only. Therefore, the risk of entering the market shall be borne by


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