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Expectation of price rise or concept of heating phosphate rock

wallpapers News 2020-10-21

is affected by export domestic dem ahead of schedule, enterprises' inventory digestion is fast, phosphate fertilizer supply is tight in the short term, the price rises sharply. Considering that about 80% of phosphate rock in China is directly or indirectly used to produce phosphate fertilizer, the price increase of phosphate fertilizer may directly push up the price of phosphate ore. In addition, with the strategic importance of phosphorus resources gradually recognized, the Chinese government began to integrate phosphate rock resources, the contraction of supply side also boosted the price of phosphate rock to a certain extent. Analysts pointed out that a series of non-ferrous resources began to rise in price, which led to a wave of fierce market. In view of the low price of phosphate rock, once the price of phosphate rock rises, phosphate resource stocks are also expected to usher in a supplementary rise. The tight supply of

boosted the price rise of phosphate fertilizer. Under the influence of the new export tariff policy, the export volume of domestic phosphate fertilizer increased significantly in the first half of the year. The export volume of monoammonium phosphate diammonium phosphate increased by 201% 146% respectively. Recently, the domestic market volume price of monoammonium phosphate have risen. With the continuous increase of downstream dem, the price of monoammonium phosphate has increased from 1750 yuan / ton to 2150 yuan / ton since mid May, with an increase of 400 yuan / ton or 22.86%. Industry insiders pointed out that monoammonium phosphate is one of the main varieties of high concentration phosphorus compound fertilizer, such a large increase reached the highest value in five years. According to the monitoring, in 2012, the growth rate of monoammonium phosphate was - 0.53%, in July it was - 2.43%, in June 2013 it was - 8.11%, in July it was - 4.36%, all of which were mainly downward sliding. However, in June 2014, the growth rate of Monoammonium phosphate was 2.27%, that in July was 4.87%, which was more than expected. This round of rise is mainly due to the export pull the early start of domestic dem, enterprises' inventory digestion is fast, the supply is tight in the short term; in addition, the export volume of diammonium phosphate is large, which leaves market share for domestic autumn sales of compound fertilizer, the increase of raw material procurement of compound fertilizer enterprises also benefits the price of monoammonium phosphate. According to the analysis of

business agencies, from January to May this year, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline, falling from about 1950 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 1750 yuan in May. Under the background of stable prices of phosphate rock, sulfur synthetic ammonia, the industry suffered huge losses, more enterprises stopped reduced production. By the end of May, the operating rate of the industry had dropped below 40%. According to this operating rate, the annual supply of monoammonium phosphate in China is 7 million tons, there is a shortage of supply. Therefore, it is inevitable that the price will rise. In June, the price of monoammonium phosphate began to stop falling stabilize. In July, it was difficult to find a single product the price rose rapidly. In July alone, the price rose by nearly 200 yuan. With the arrival of autumn sales peak season, the domestic fertilizer market is gradually out of the previous downturn industry, the price of phosphate fertilizer is expected to rise. It should be noted that about 80% of phosphate rock in China is directly or indirectly used to produce phosphate fertilizer, so the price increase of phosphate fertilizer may directly push up the price of phosphate ore.

in addition, according to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, 12 provinces autonomous regions, including Hebei, Shanxi, Shong, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Shaanxi, Gansu Xinjiang, are suffering from drought to varying degrees. As early as the drought in Yunnan in 2012, there was a wave of sharp rise in phosphate rock. The drought not only led to the paralysis of local agricultural production, but also caused a serious blow to the production transportation of phosphate ore related enterprises. The nationwide drought may lead to a wave of increase in phosphate rock after August.

analysts pointed out that since the nickel price rise, the prices of aluminum, palladium, titanium, molybdenum other non-ferrous resources have also begun to rise. In the secondary market, non-ferrous resources stocks have also set off a wave of fierce market. However, the price of phosphate ore is still at a low level, which belongs to the stagflation variety. Once the price of phosphate rock rises, phosphate resource stocks are also expected to usher in a supplementary rise.

the government began to integrate phosphate rock resources.

phosphate rock is the general name of economically available phosphate minerals. It is mainly used in the production of phosphate fertilizer in industry, can also be used to produce yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid, phosphide other phosphate products. These products are widely used in agricultural production, medicine, food, light industry, chemical industry, national defense other industrial sectors. The contents of

phosphorus are very high in the earth's crust, but the phosphorus resources with industrial exploitation value are very limited in the world. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the world's economic reserves of phosphate rock are 18 billion tons, the basic reserves are 50 billion tons (economic reserves refer to the phosphate rock with mining cost less than 35 US dollars / ton, basic reserves refer to those with mining costs less than 100 dollars / ton). More than 80% of them are concentrated in Morocco, the United States, South Africa, Jordan China. In terms of basic reserves, Morocco ranks first, China second the United States third. The main producing countries are the United States, Morocco, China Russia. The output of the four countries is about 67.6% of the total production.

although China's phosphorus mineral reserves are the second in the world, they are the largest phosphate producing countries. In 2010, the output reached 68 million tons, the proven reserves reached 16.79 billion tons, mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan Hubei. Even so, China is not a phosphate rich country, but a poor one. According to relevant data, China's phosphate rock reserves basic reserves are 4.1 billion tons 10 billion tons respectively, accounting for 27.14% 21.28% of the global total, respectively. However, the average grade is only 17% due to the lack of rich ore more lean ore in China. Only 8.5% of the rich ore with more than 30% P2O5, more than 90% of the low-grade phosphate rock that can not be directly used. Some analysts say that the existing phosphate rock resources in China may be exhausted in more than 20 years.

are gradually recognized as the importance of phosphorus resources, the Chinese government has begun to integrate phosphate resources. According to relevant data, after integration in recent years, the number of phosphate mines in China decreased from 414 in 2007 to 339 in 2009, 75 in three years, 18% in three years, the number of large-scale mines increased from 10 in 2007 to 17. In addition, the "12th Five Year Plan for development of chemical ores" previously launched proposed to establish a resource reserve mechanism for phosphate ore producing areas in the next five years, raise the entry threshold for phosphate mining, promote the large-scale intensive development utilization of major chemical minerals. Some local governments have also issued similar measures for reasonable planning protection of phosphorus resources, such as suspending the approval of exploration right mining right of Phosphate Rock except the planning area in Hubei Province. These policiesIt means that the state pays more more attention to the phosphate rock resources, which is undoubtedly a good thing for the enterprises that already have phosphate resources. Industry insiders of

believe that the orderly intensive development of phosphate ore resources by the state is a long-term good for listed companies in related industrial chain. The protective mining of phosphate rock area may be promoted in the whole country, it is not far away for the state to promulgate the protective mining of phosphate rock. The scarcity of phosphate rock is gradually reflected, the pace of phosphate rock integration is also accelerating.


(source: China Securities Journal - China securities website, author: Xu Weiping) "

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